A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
